WET compares coaches in different situations by controlling for the talent level of their team and their opponents. WET uses the very strong correlation between talent difference and winning percentage to generate an expected win value for each game, and then calculates the difference between those expected win values and actual outcomes. Every win has a positive WET, and every loss has a negative WET.
Here are some examples
| Game | Talent Diff | Coach’s Score | Result |
| PSU(W) vs. Nev 8/30/25 | PSU +422 | James Franklin +0.03 WET | Penn State beats a hopelessly overmatched opponent. |
| PSU(L) vs. NW 10/11/25 | PSU +232 | James Franklin -0.78 WET | Penn State loses to a much less talented team (and Franklin loses his job). |
| UNM(W) at UNLV 11/1/25 | New Mex -322 | Jason Eck +0.87 WET | New Mexico pulls one of the WETtest upsets of the year so far on the road. |
| UNM(L) at BOIS 10/11/25 | New Mex -232 | Jason Eck -0.22 WET | New Mexico loses as expected. |
All WET values are zero sum – for the games listed above, reverse the sign and you get the WET value for Nevada (-0.03 WET), NW (+0.78 WET), UNLV (-0.87 WET) and Boise State (+0.22 WET) for those games. For a detailed explanation of the methodology, visit the FAQ.
For most of us who just want a simple number we can wrap our head around, here we go.
Top 20 coaches in total WET since 2015 (when 247sports composite talent index debuted):
| Coach | Total WET | Gm __ | WET / 12 gm | Last Season |
| Kirk Ferentz | 24.68 | 129 | 2.30 | Iowa 2025 |
| Kyle Whittingham | 20.21 | 125 | 1.94 | Utah 2025 |
| Ken Niumatalolo | 19.02 | 89 | 2.56 | SJSU 2025 |
| Jeff Brohm | 17.83 | 127 | 1.68 | Lou 2025 |
| Curt Cignetti | 16.49 | 32 | 6.18 | Ind 2025 |
| Nick Saban | 16.00 | 118 | 1.63 | Bama 2023 |
| Lane Kiffin | 15.56 | 104 | 1.80 | Miss 2025 |
| Jamey Chadwell | 15.51 | 84 | 2.22 | Liberty 2025 |
| Kalani Sitake | 15.27 | 113 | 1.62 | BYU 2025 |
| Mike Leach | 15.11 | 93 | 1.95 | Miss St 2022 |
| Josh Heupel | 15.05 | 90 | 2.01 | Tenn 2025 |
| PJ Fleck | 14.58 | 127 | 1.38 | Minn 2025 |
| Mike Gundy | 14.57 | 122 | 1.43 | Okla St 2025 |
| Matt Campbell | 13.85 | 126 | 1.32 | Iowa St 2025 |
| Dabo Swinney | 13.48 | 138 | 1.17 | Clem 2025 |
| Hugh Freeze | 13.43 | 97 | 1.66 | Aub 2025 |
| Eli Drinkwitz | 13.04 | 75 | 2.09 | Mizzou 2025 |
| Paul Chryst | 12.93 | 91 | 1.71 | Wisc 2022 |
| Brian Kelly | 12.53 | 131 | 1.15 | LSU 2025 |
| Scott Satterfield | 11.84 | 120 | 1.18 | Cinc 2025 |
Okay, wait? You’re saying Kirk Ferentz is a better coach than Nick Saban? I’m outta here.
Settle down. Nick Saban is the undisputed GOAT. If I needed a coach to win one game, I’d pick Saban. But if I needed to win one game, and the other team had a lot more talent than mine, I’d pick…Nick Saban. What am I, an idiot? WET simply points out that Saban has never won a game against a team with 100+ more talent than him, because he’s never actually played a game against a team with that much more talent. Honestly I’m shocked that Saban is even on this list. WET stands for Wins Exceeding Talent, and Saban almost never had to exceed a more talented team. WET is positive for every win and negative for every loss, so Saban made the list by accumulating a little bit of WET each week.l and basically never losing.
So Ferentz? Really?
First, let me say that I loath Kirk Ferentz. He’s arrogant and abrasive, he allowed his incompetent son to ruin their offense for years, and he wins by dragging other teams down into the muck and playing an unwatchable style of football. But he wins, and WET doesn’t give style points. Every year Uncle Kirk wins at least a couple games against teams with far more talent, teams that he has no business beating. Nobody is saying Iowa is beating the Alabamas of the world. But he wins a lot against the Nebraskas and Wisconsins of College Football, which are teams that have substantially more talent than Iowa. Kirk Ferentz is definitely NOT the GOAT. But by beating more talented teams every year, and doing it consistently enough over long enough, Uncle Kirk from Iowa is the WETtest of All Time (if all time started in 2015). Take a look.
| Sch | Year | Gm __ | Total WET | Notably WET Wins |
| Iowa | 2015 | 13 | 6.08 | at NEB +0.68 at Wisc +0.62 |
| Iowa | 2016 | 12 | 3.26 | vs Mich +0.73 |
| Iowa | 2017 | 13 | 0.50 | at OSU +0.80 |
| Iowa | 2018 | 12 | 0.86 | Outback Bowl vs Miss St +0.58 |
| Iowa | 2019 | 13 | 2.12 | at Neb +0.65 Holiday Bowl vs USC +0.73 |
| Iowa | 2020 | 8 | 2.43 | at PSU +0.77 |
| Iowa | 2021 | 14 | 3.72 | at Neb +0.64 vs PSU +0.60 |
| Iowa | 2022 | 12 | 1.09 | Music City Bowl vs KY +0.57 |
| Iowa | 2023 | 14 | 2.42 | at Wisc +0.61 |
| Iowa | 2024 | 12 | 1.09 | vs Wisc +0.51 |
| Iowa | 2025 | 6 | 1.11 | vs PSU +0.64 at Wisc +0.61 |
So, soooooooo WET. He’s never had a negative WET season. He is the Energizer Bunny of WET. I don’t have to like it, but he wins.
Are you saying, He wins, Google him?
Ah yes, it’s time to talk about Curt Cignetti. If Uncle Kirk is the WOAT, Curt Cignetti is the undisputed WETtest of right now. I’m still a little skeptical because it’s only 32 games total in the sample with James Madison and Indiana combined. (Note: 2021 & 2022, JMU did not have a talent rating from 247sports so those games are not included) . But what he’s doing at the moment has absolutely no comparison. In WET/12 games, he’s several standard deviations ahead of the next guy. (Side note: I don’t really know what a standard deviation is. I’ve had it explained to me a bunch of times, but I can’t say I really get it or know how to calculate it. Maybe I should’ve put that disclaimer first before I asked you to accept this advanced stat I’ve developed.) Anyway, Cignetti is absolutely destroying the curve for every other coach. Saying “If Cignetti can do it, why can’t our coach do it?” is like saying “Taylor Swift made a billion dollars on her music, why can’t every singer do that?” I don’t know what a standard deviation is, but I know that Curt Cignetti is a Taylor Swift-sized outlier in terms of Wins Exceeding Talent. Enjoy that visual.
Cignetti just signed an extension. Assuming he’s not available, who should my team hire?
Go get Jeff Brohm. He’s the only guy on here who’s got significant WET at three different schools.
| School | Seasons | Total WET | Notes |
| Western Kentucky | 2015-2016 | 10.34 | Super Duper WET! |
| Purdue | 2017-2022 | 2.96 | Less WET, but still WET! |
| Louisville | 2023-present | 4.53 | Here we go getting super WET again! |
WET is not necessarily predictive or portable, yet. Take Scott Frost, for example. Scott had a 5.35 WET season in 2017 at UCF. I don’t know if it was a “National Championship” season; that’s beyond my purview. But it was the 11th WETtest single season of the 1,374 coach seasons in the sample (min. 6 games coached). Then he went to Nebraska and accumulated negative -11.31 WET over the next four and a half years, which is in the bottom 5 percent of all coaches in the sample. So nothing is guaranteed. If I can develop an expected WET, I’ll let you know. (xWET? xxxWET?) In the meantime Brohm’s track record looks really good. If I could call up PSU Athletic Director Pat Kraft, or Louisiana Governor Greg Landry, I’d say back up the Brinks truck for Brohm.
I’m one of those people who can’t help looking when I see a car wreck, and you mentioned Scott Frost…
Way ahead of you. Here are the 20 coaches with the most negative total WET (total DRY? let’s workshop it):
| Coach | Total WET | Gm __ | WET/ 12_gms | Last Season |
| David Beaty | -13.18 | 44 | -3.60 | Kansas 2018 |
| Don Brown | -13.11 | 27 | -5.83 | Mass 2024 |
| Chad Morris | -12.34 | 53 | -2.79 | Arkansas 2019 |
| Joe Moorhead | -12.02 | 65 | -2.22 | Akron 2025 |
| Jeff Scott | -11.31 | 27 | -5.03 | South Fla 2022 |
| Randy Edsall | -10.90 | 40 | -3.27 | UConn 2021 |
| Everett Withers | -10.56 | 33 | -3.84 | Temple 2024 |
| Chris Ash | -10.36 | 37 | -3.36 | Rutgers 2019 |
| Brent Brennan | -10.12 | 90 | -1.35 | Arizona 2025 |
| Lovie Smith | -10.02 | 48 | -2.51 | Illinois 2020 |
| Derek Mason | -9.66 | 76 | -1.53 | MTSU 2025 |
| Tony Sanchez | -9.55 | 70 | -1.64 | NMSU 2025 |
| Dana Dimel | -9.54 | 62 | -1.85 | UTEP |
| Butch Jones | -9.04 | 85 | -1.28 | Ark St 2025 |
| Tom Arth | -8.88 | 26 | -4.10 | Akron 2021 |
| Mike Locksley | -8.81 | 77 | -1.37 | Maryland 2025 |
| Jake Spavital | -8.80 | 44 | -2.40 | Texas St 2022 |
| Mike Neu | -8.53 | 94 | -1.09 | Ball St 2024 |
| Mark Whipple | -8.51 | 45 | -2.27 | Mass 2018 |
| Kenni Burns | -8.32 | 22 | -4.54 | Kent St 2024 |
Oh, Lovie Smith. All I can say is that it’s rough. I think this is an obvious statement, but more coaches fail than succeed, because the successful ones stick around while the unsuccessful ones get fired and a new guy gets thrown into the fire. There are 253 coaches on the list (min. 12 games in the sample). 114 have positive WET, and 139 have negative WET. If you include interim or coaches with smaller sample sizes, there’s even more negative WET guys.
I’m sure there are some guys on this list who just got into the wrong spot and could be successful otherwise, but right now the list is the list. If I was an AD, I’d be very hesitant to hire anyone on this list.
One more thing: this is not a political blog. Republicans and Democrats alike are welcome to get WET. I think it’s weird that the Governor of Louisiana wants Donald Trump to pick their next football coach, but I’m not an LSU fan so it’s also not my problem, ya know? That all being said, I can’t help but snicker at Senator Tommy Tuberville and his -2.31 total WET. It’s completely unfair to the gentleman from Alabama, since WET only captures his two final seasons, and he definitely had winning years before that which aren’t included in the sample because we don’t have talent ratings for them. Fair or not, I don’t care, I’m still snickering.
Who else stands out from the WETtest and DRYest lists?
R.I.P. Mike Leach, 10th in all-time WET, and a guy who had more fun doing it than anyone else. I wish he was still with us and still coaching. If he had a few more years, he might be at the top of the list and we wouldn’t have to talk about Kirk freaking Ferentz. As for the DRY list, I think it’s very fair to ask why Mike Locksley is still employed as a head coach.
You said WET isn’t predictive, so what else can it tell us? Can I use it to win money on FanDuel?
I didn’t say it ISN’T predictive, I said that I’m not sure yet if it’s predictive or how much. I’m working on it. As for using it to beat Vegas, there’s like 10 people in the world who are capable of building a better model than the house, and clearly I’m not one of those 10. Did you miss the part where I don’t know what standard deviation means? However, if you are one of those 10 people, I’m happy to license the WET formula to you to incorporate into your models, in return for a slight cut of your profits and absolutely zero risk on my end. Email me! Other than that, stay tuned. I plan to write a bunch more articles because there’s a lot left to be explored. So far I think we’ve just barely dipped our toe into WET.
Are your jokes always this bad?
You sound like my children.
See the Full WET list here. We’re working on a database where you can query for any coach, team, season, etc. hopefully it’s up soon. In the meantime, if you have specific parameters you want to know, email me at [email protected] or message me on X @WETcfb.